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Liam Sturgess's avatar

Excellent, my friend. I've added this article to the OpenVAET page I created on the White Rose Wiki: https://www.whiteroseintelligence.com/openvaet/

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US Mortality's avatar

Thanks for your article, please let me state some comments:

1) The ranking page has been up for over a year now, hence it's not new.

2) The ranking page, allows many different methodological model choices. I don't know which models are the best, but I tried to provide the user with the most flexible.

3) Your choice of a 2015-2019 baseline may be statistically limited for robust linear regression analysis. Additionally, since all baseline selections and their resulting predictions carry inherent uncertainty, I would recommend displaying prediction intervals alongside the forecasts to better communicate this uncertainty to users.

4) The underlying model calculations utilize the R package fabletools, which should minimize the likelihood of statistical errors in the computations.

5) We have different underlying data sources, while you are using Eurostat, Mortality.Watch uses Mortality.org for this specific chart - which may explain the discrepancy. I will double check why the algorithm chose STMF over Eurostat.

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