Well done. Paul's analyses on the face of it always seem persuasive but you always get left with the feeling that they are there to promote a specific narrative and once he meets that narrative stops looking.
One other factor to consider, which is relevant to a number of Western countries (most affected by the 2022-2023 drop in births) is that the younger age groups often have a higher representation of cultural groups who were more likely to reject the COVID mRNA vaccines and who are also the groups who have a higher pre-existing fertility rate than the native groups. This would be seen in the UK, Germany, Sweden, France and some parts of Australia for instance. It becomes a conflating factor in either direction but can be a reason that birth rates were propped up in some areas and didn't show as large a drop.
Conversely there is also a pull forward effect from the 2021 mini-boom. Families who were going to plan children brought their plans forward (due to lockdowns) and therefore in the absence of the same ongoing reason for the mini-boom (assuming it was lockdown) you would anticipate a drop in 2022. This might be seen as a vaccine-related effect but could just be the correction from 2021.
As we see, the data is very conflated and ideally it should be analysed by vaccination status to resolve the issue. That data I suspect will never be released.
Agreed entirely with your (now pinned) post - aside that I don't think Paul has any hidden agenda - he has always addressed fairly my private or public comments.
We have vastly different perspective on the issue, but I try to represent myself the situation from a rational guy from the other side who would have issues distinguishing between mice & Stew Peters propaganda.
At least does he acknowledges elegantly when he was wrong.
Could it also be the HPV vaccines causing loss of pregnancy in the first 30 days as in the scandal shown here in NZ . These younger people have had a more focused blanket of vaccinations in general.
They are less aware have been programmed through the schools, by the pharma companies.
This is a WORLD WIDE POGROM. Kill the unborn.
These deceitful and fraudulent actions need explanations and those possibly injured deserve to be informed.
Retracted NZ Study Proved HPV Vaccine "Reduced Preterm Births" - By INVERTING THE DATA
Retracted NZ Study Proved HPV Vaccine "Reduced Preterm Births" - By INVE...
Igor Chudov
Study Initiator Concealed Payments by HPV Vaccine Rights Owner
At first sight, the effect of 2022 vs the 2017-2019 median is -53,000 for women -32, and +8,000 for women 33+. But in part, this reflects the changing age structure of the population and the long-term trend in increasing age at first birth. Anyway, both for Sweden and for Germany, 2023 will look even worse than 2022.
Well done. Paul's analyses on the face of it always seem persuasive but you always get left with the feeling that they are there to promote a specific narrative and once he meets that narrative stops looking.
One other factor to consider, which is relevant to a number of Western countries (most affected by the 2022-2023 drop in births) is that the younger age groups often have a higher representation of cultural groups who were more likely to reject the COVID mRNA vaccines and who are also the groups who have a higher pre-existing fertility rate than the native groups. This would be seen in the UK, Germany, Sweden, France and some parts of Australia for instance. It becomes a conflating factor in either direction but can be a reason that birth rates were propped up in some areas and didn't show as large a drop.
Conversely there is also a pull forward effect from the 2021 mini-boom. Families who were going to plan children brought their plans forward (due to lockdowns) and therefore in the absence of the same ongoing reason for the mini-boom (assuming it was lockdown) you would anticipate a drop in 2022. This might be seen as a vaccine-related effect but could just be the correction from 2021.
As we see, the data is very conflated and ideally it should be analysed by vaccination status to resolve the issue. That data I suspect will never be released.
Thanks !
Agreed entirely with your (now pinned) post - aside that I don't think Paul has any hidden agenda - he has always addressed fairly my private or public comments.
We have vastly different perspective on the issue, but I try to represent myself the situation from a rational guy from the other side who would have issues distinguishing between mice & Stew Peters propaganda.
At least does he acknowledges elegantly when he was wrong.
https://twitter.com/dobssi/status/1755178575198580902
For me guys like him are those we need to talk to - and sometimes learn from.
Could it also be the HPV vaccines causing loss of pregnancy in the first 30 days as in the scandal shown here in NZ . These younger people have had a more focused blanket of vaccinations in general.
They are less aware have been programmed through the schools, by the pharma companies.
This is a WORLD WIDE POGROM. Kill the unborn.
These deceitful and fraudulent actions need explanations and those possibly injured deserve to be informed.
Retracted NZ Study Proved HPV Vaccine "Reduced Preterm Births" - By INVERTING THE DATA
Retracted NZ Study Proved HPV Vaccine "Reduced Preterm Births" - By INVE...
Igor Chudov
Study Initiator Concealed Payments by HPV Vaccine Rights Owner
Thanks for your analysis! I've been watching the drop in the birth rate data from time to time and can't figure out if there is anything there.
Thanks !
My position until proven otherwise is that there is definitely a major issue there; cf. https://openvaet.substack.com/p/eurostat-and-countries-data-2022 among others (which references numerous other authors more specialized than myself on the subject).
Waiting the 2023 figures with impatience.
Of course, age structure is difficult to entangle from other factors. For Germany, births by age of mother can be assessed here:
https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis//online?operation=table&code=12612-0005#astructure
At first sight, the effect of 2022 vs the 2017-2019 median is -53,000 for women -32, and +8,000 for women 33+. But in part, this reflects the changing age structure of the population and the long-term trend in increasing age at first birth. Anyway, both for Sweden and for Germany, 2023 will look even worse than 2022.