Another dive in births data (and Neonatal Mortality) - illustrating that a major fertility problem affects (at least) Europe, and requires transparent investigations.
Korea has good data. When I analysed it in Sept 2022, I could not find any concern, in spite of the country being heavily vaccinated. Perhaps, they withheld vaccinating pregnant women? Worth investigating? https://metatron.substack.com/p/is-there-a-depopulation-agenda-in
They definitely withheld the vaccination of pregnant women compared to the other countries I investigated (up to October).
I introduced a request to their data service for monthly breakdowns of the neonatal deaths - but their average answer delay looks to be around 2 weeks, so crossed fingers.
Regarding stillbirths in Germany, at least data by quarter should be available. Kuhbandnder and Reitzner are showing them in their paper (maybe they got it by request from destatis):
Currently I am only tracking (live) births, but I am also very interested in time series of numbers of women of child-bearing age for the countries in my sample (just to have something at hand to poke the nonsense explanations I got from destatis).
The destatis Genesis database (which seems to be up and running again) only offers annual figures for stillbirths. Maybe Kuhbandner and Reitzner directly wrote to them.
Thanks for the comprehensive presentation! However, Paul C.'s figure for Germany in 2022 (-14%) does not seem to be based on accurate data. Based on the official, finalized figures, the decline was only about half as large. More details here: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/births-and-abortions-in-germany-with
The charts following the first by Paul C. are mine (from Eurostats figures).
It's likely there are offsets in the databases between Eurostat and the official Germany figures - or that differences in our baseline calculation are affecting the percentage (I'm using a 2013-2019 Linear Trend to reach this -14%).
In any case it doesn't impact much the end result, which is that births are going down - but it would be interesting to diagnose the issue if it's caused by a dataset offset.
You can find my figures used on reference 88 - if you can confirm that the yearly totals are the same the issue is likely coming from the difference in baseline.
Thanks for your answer! The Eurostat figures seem to be OK. Solely 2022 differs marginally. The cause is clearly the development by time. Births increased 2013 to 2016, then paused. As a result, a spurious trend is obtained when evaluating the period from 2013 to 2019! To show this, I applied a STL decomposition.
Excellent piece on a topic that has decimating impact for every country around the world, and collectively as a keystone species🤔😐😭
Comparatively, the data set for lowest vaccinated countries and live births?
Separating the data with a scapel-like precision is required because the fertility issues were on a trajectory prior to the shots release and will be used to deflect blame from modRNA shots, while likewise pushing towards psychological effects of c19 measures utilised as a "catalyst". So countering this is of high concern. But thank you for persevering.🙏🙏🙏
Korea has good data. When I analysed it in Sept 2022, I could not find any concern, in spite of the country being heavily vaccinated. Perhaps, they withheld vaccinating pregnant women? Worth investigating? https://metatron.substack.com/p/is-there-a-depopulation-agenda-in
Not everyone will be reading your new post's comments (which people should read here : https://metatron.substack.com/p/population-change-summary-south-korea) so also answering here.
They definitely withheld the vaccination of pregnant women compared to the other countries I investigated (up to October).
I introduced a request to their data service for monthly breakdowns of the neonatal deaths - but their average answer delay looks to be around 2 weeks, so crossed fingers.
Thanks for the work, and for mentioning my substack. I will publish an update for Q2 2023 around mid/end September.
Baseline data for Bosnia and Herzegovina can be found here (older under "Publications", recent under "First release"):
https://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/Category?id=14&page=2&statGroup=14&tabId=4
Regarding stillbirths in Germany, at least data by quarter should be available. Kuhbandnder and Reitzner are showing them in their paper (maybe they got it by request from destatis):
https://assets.cureus.com/uploads/original_article/pdf/149410/20230626-18966-49ysst.pdf
Currently I am only tracking (live) births, but I am also very interested in time series of numbers of women of child-bearing age for the countries in my sample (just to have something at hand to poke the nonsense explanations I got from destatis).
The German website is a particular pain to use (or at least was for me yesterday) resetting every 30 seconds without click and asking for login..
Nevertheless I persisted for a while and couldn't locate these. Perhaps by request indeed ; I'll try that.
Looking at the rest ; thanks !
The destatis Genesis database (which seems to be up and running again) only offers annual figures for stillbirths. Maybe Kuhbandner and Reitzner directly wrote to them.
Wow, that’s excellent. You were clearly busy, I’m glad I didn’t bother you with my meme questions, you were “doing the lord’s work.”
I posted it on Reddit
Thanks for the comprehensive presentation! However, Paul C.'s figure for Germany in 2022 (-14%) does not seem to be based on accurate data. Based on the official, finalized figures, the decline was only about half as large. More details here: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/births-and-abortions-in-germany-with
The charts following the first by Paul C. are mine (from Eurostats figures).
It's likely there are offsets in the databases between Eurostat and the official Germany figures - or that differences in our baseline calculation are affecting the percentage (I'm using a 2013-2019 Linear Trend to reach this -14%).
In any case it doesn't impact much the end result, which is that births are going down - but it would be interesting to diagnose the issue if it's caused by a dataset offset.
You can find my figures used on reference 88 - if you can confirm that the yearly totals are the same the issue is likely coming from the difference in baseline.
Thanks for your answer! The Eurostat figures seem to be OK. Solely 2022 differs marginally. The cause is clearly the development by time. Births increased 2013 to 2016, then paused. As a result, a spurious trend is obtained when evaluating the period from 2013 to 2019! To show this, I applied a STL decomposition.
http://caes.cloudns.ph/pics/substack/all.png
http://caes.cloudns.ph/pics/substack/part.png
If you're served a spoiled meal, maybe the rest of the menu is pretty good. But wouldn't you rather go to the restaurant next door?
👏👏👏👏👏🙌💯📣📣📣🙏🙏🙏🙏
Excellent piece on a topic that has decimating impact for every country around the world, and collectively as a keystone species🤔😐😭
Comparatively, the data set for lowest vaccinated countries and live births?
Separating the data with a scapel-like precision is required because the fertility issues were on a trajectory prior to the shots release and will be used to deflect blame from modRNA shots, while likewise pushing towards psychological effects of c19 measures utilised as a "catalyst". So countering this is of high concern. But thank you for persevering.🙏🙏🙏